USA and China
Many predict China the future of a new world power, based on the pace of its development now. But this view does not take into account the factor of China’s economic vulnerability, nor the problem of lack of continuity in politics.
First, it is not at all necessary that China will be able to maintain rapid growth in the future for various reasons. Secondly, the dynamic nature of China’s economic transformation, including its social openness to the rest of the world, will in the long run begin to contradict a relatively closed and bureaucratically harsh dictatorship. Thirdly, even if China avoids serious political crises and even if it manages to maintain an incredibly high rate of economic growth, the country will still remain very poor compared to other states.
To summarize the above: it is unlikely that China will soon become, according to key indicators, a truly world power. But even in this situation, the country takes significant steps to become the dominant regional power in East Asia.
The realization of any development prospects for China depends not only on the course of its development, but also on the actions of the United States and its presence in the region. America, left out of work, would have made the scenario of a strong strengthening of China the most likely, and it would soon become a real political and economic giant. An attempt to reduce the growth of China’s power would require adaptation and self-restraint from the United States. The Chinese are aware of this, and thus, Chinese foreign policy should primarily be aimed at influencing the actions of the United States and, especially, the extremely important ties between America and Japan. Moreover, in relations between China and other countries, tactics should change taking into account this strategic interest.
Even in his pre-election speech and program drawn up at the same time, B. Obama focuses on strengthening influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
So, on the basis of B. Obama’s program, it can be concluded that relations between the United States and China in the ideas of the incoming US administration will be governed in the near future by the Obama and Biden Plan to actively engage China to solve joint problems.
Barack Obama and Joe Biden understand that China’s growth may be one of the most significant foreign policy challenges to the United States in subsequent years. They do not blame in this China, they are aware of the size of these challenges and the importance of establishing constructive relations with China for US peace and well-being. Obama and Biden believe that the best way to develop relations with China is to integrate it into the international system and work together with China to solve problems in the economy, politics, security and environmental protection. At the same time, the United States should remain vigilant about Chinese military modernization, ensuring a peaceful resolution of the differences between China and Taiwan, and demand that China fulfill its obligations as a member of the international community.
The current US administration is aware that the rapid modernization of the Chinese armed forces requires vigilance and readiness on our part, and this fact explains the strengthening of US participation in alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the preservation of their advanced deployment there.
B. Obama says the United States is aware of the importance of China’s policies regarding Taiwan. For America, this policy lies within the framework of the Three Communiqués (statements by three US presidents at different times), as well as in the framework of the Act of Relations with Taiwan, approved by the US Congress on March 29, 1979 and which is the foundation of our relations with Taiwan. Nevertheless, constant work is being done to ensure that there is never a conflict in the Taiwan Strait by building good relations between China and Taiwan, and so that it can be seen that the US administration expects all differences to be resolved peacefully and through dialogue. The main emphasis is on the peaceful resolution of conflicts.
America and the rest of the world can benefit from the rapid growth of China’s economy, which can provide global economic growth and a market for our exports. But these benefits will be realized if China itself plays by the rules and agreements, as a positive force to maintain a balance of global growth. The United States intends to use all diplomatic means to control Chinese monetary policy, the practice of creating global imbalance and promoting Chinese companies in unfair competition.
The next issue that is being actively discussed by the Obama administration is China’s policy in Sudan. In Sudan, China maintains one of the world’s most condemned regimes. The US insists on the use of all available tools and requires China to use its influence to prevent regimes in Sudan and other countries that violate international law, peace and security. China’s support for the regimes in these countries is directed against the peoples of these countries, against the international community and against the long-term interests of China itself as a leading and responsible representative of the international community.
The recommendations of leading American experts on Asian issues to the future president are interesting. They emphasize that previous US administrations did not pay enough attention to the study of Asian specifics, as a result, the country faced a number of problems of both a political and economic nature. “The new US administration needs a clear vision of the future status of the Asian region as a center of attraction,” said Douglas Paal, director of the Carnegie Endowment for Chinese Programs. In his view, in order to advance US interests in Asia, the president-elect must do the following:
– As soon as possible determine the strategic goals of the United States in Asia and make clear to China the need for constructive cooperation;
– appoint highly qualified advisers on affairs of the Asian region, thereby making it clear to everyone about the increased importance of this region;
– determine the structure of organizations in the region, the scheme and sequence of meetings with leaders of countries in the region. Mandatory presence of India and China in the Group of Eight (G8);
– foresee the growth of the armed forces and economy of China and India, for economic regulation and ensuring security in the region;
– Avoid coalitions based on shared democratic values. Asia is too diverse and this will complicate the process of interaction;
– stop the rhetoric on the theme “the fight against terrorism”, which is unproductive and causes rejection. / 29 /
In general, the US administration should prepare before embarking on its foreign policy duties. It is undesirable to repeat the mistakes of the administrations of B. Clinton and George W. Bush regarding China and North Korea.
The recommendations of experts indicate the increased influence of the East Asian region in the world and the need for the US leadership to pay the most serious attention to issues of US-Asian cooperation. Asia has been called the “center of gravity.” The East Asian region is also called the “production center”, “the financial center”, “the center of new technologies”, the “transport center”, and in the near future the “center for the spread of Asian culture.” Despite the small volume of election rhetoric on the relationship between the United States and East Asian countries, we see the importance of this topic for the United States, the need for the United States to modernize its foreign policy in the direction of strengthening US-Asian cooperation. Obviously, in promoting their interests in the world, the United States remains committed to its methods and principles. “No need to make mistakes, we must always be prepared to use force to defend America. In striving to ensure our national security and our common security, we must use the entire arsenal of American power and ingenuity, ”says the newly elected US president. Perhaps the world expects an increase in the force vector in the zone of the Asia-Pacific region following the shift of the production and financial vector here. The growth of the global economic influence of the region will increase its importance, and hence the need to ensure its security both for the countries of Asia and for their partners on the American continent.
Despite changes in US foreign policy towards China, in terms of softening relations between the two countries, there is some tension on the part of China.
The main reason for China’s dislike of America is less related to the behavior of the United States; rather, it is caused by the fact that America is at present and where it is located. China considers it a world hegemon, the mere presence of which in the region, based on its authority in Japan, holds back the process of expanding Chinese influence. Therefore, the task of Chinese politics is to use American power to “defeat” its hegemony in the region peacefully, but without awakening hidden Japanese regional aspirations.
China’s second goal is to abstain from any serious conflicts with its closest neighbors, even continuing to search for ways to achieve regional superiority.
Peacefully strengthening China’s position in the region will make it easier for him to achieve his main goal: to erode American power in the region to such an extent that a weakened America feels the need to make regionally influential China its ally, and eventually have it, which has become an influential world power, its partner.
According to experts, Obama’s foreign policy success is improving relations between the United States and China. But even mentioning this “achievement”, they indicate that during the November Far East visit of the American president, the Chinese did not allow him to communicate with the people or answer questions during a short press conference at the end of the trip. In addition, serious disagreements between countries were recalled during the Copenhagen Climate Control Conference. Obama and his entourage understand that China is becoming one of the main, if not the main player in the international arena in resolving any issue, be it trade, finance, Iran’s transformation into a nuclear power, or natural disaster prediction. The question is how to make China cooperate not only in the interests of China itself, but also in another part of humanity. According to a number of American experts, China is turning into a robber, benefiting from everything. For example, China does not leave its currency free, attracting the yuan to the dollar, thus making its goods cheaper than they should be. This contributes to the growth of Chinese exports, but beats the economies of other Asian countries. Despite the expansion of trade exchange, the United States has so far failed to force China to change its monetary policy.
The United States is still pushing for China to open its doors: the Treasury Secretary and the outraged Congress are demanding that Beijing raise the national currency and give American companies more opportunities to compete with this country, which has no equal in terms of economic growth among major powers.
Most analysts, concentrating on the failures and failures of the state-building program in Iraq and Afghanistan, ignored the real successes and achievements of the George W. Bush administration. in other areas of his strategy in Asia, – in India, Indonesia and, especially, in China.
A strong regional presence, combined with diplomatic initiatives, prompted the PRC not to resort to forceful methods, but to use diplomatic and economic leverage to realize its increased influence. It is appropriate to mention here the constant involvement of the PRC in the process of developing solutions coordinated with the United States on a wide range of world problems: from the nuclear program of North Korea and piracy in the Gulf of Aden to the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. Numerous “formal dialogues” played an important role, in particular, the Strategic Economic Dialogue on Bilateral and Global Economic and Environmental Issues, where US interests were represented by former Treasury Secretary G. Paulson, and the Senior Policy Dialogue on Global Political and Security Issues, where former Under Secretary of State J. Negroponte and R. Zellig.
Contrary to popular belief, the United States does not compete with China because of Africa, Latin America, or Southeast Asia. The problems that arise are not explained by the struggle for influence and resources, but by the lack of transparency and coordination with major donors and international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The objection is the practice, for example, of providing unconditional loans to governments subject to corruption.
Disputes over the exchange rate are just one, and far from the most important, of the issues that are on the agenda today in relations between the two largest countries in the world. In some areas, Washington and Beijing share common vital interests related primarily to the fight against terrorism and ensuring strategic stability in the South Asian and Pacific regions.
The policy of the current US administration towards China is very similar to the tactics of the Bush administration. The United States, under Obama’s leadership, is just as interested in maintaining economic ties and avoiding political complications as under Bush’s leadership. In particular, Hillary Clinton explicitly refused to intervene in China’s human rights policies when she visited the country in the spring. Pre-election slogans about the need to work with China on the protection of human rights have disappeared. Considering the interests of both countries, this is reasonable, but also deserves attention, because there were many opportunities to turn to China about this (and fulfill election promises) that arose since Obama came to power (for example, the clash of Uighurs with the authorities).
Thus, Obama’s decision to develop high-level bilateral US-China relations was timely. The cultivation at the presidential level of the prevailing virtually geopolitical G-2 (this should not be confused with proposals for an economic G-2), which was illustrated by Obama’s November visit to China, contributes to the development of an increasingly important strategic dialogue. The leaders of the United States and China acknowledge that both countries are very interested in a productive and functional world system. Obviously, they also value historical potential and the corresponding national interests to which such bilateral relations meet.
Perhaps the most difficult issue in China-US relations in the 21st century. there will be a harmonization of efforts to combat global warming. For the first time, a serious dialogue began in 2006 at a five-way meeting – China, India, Japan, South Korea, the United States, given that emerging economies practically did not bear any responsibility under the Kyoto Protocol, which was unintelligible. During the visit of Clinton to Beijing in February 2009, this problem was identified as one of the priority ones.
A clearer example of China’s readiness to participate in international efforts to maintain peace and stability is the December 2008 decision to send the Chinese Navy to the Gulf of Aden to ensure a UN Security Council resolution, which means a departure from the traditional principles of strict non-interference in the internal affairs of other states.
The strategic and economic dialogue between China and the United States is a summit dialogue between the United States and China with the aim of discussing a wide range of issues on regional and global security and economic differences between the two countries. President Barack Obama and Hu Jintao announced the establishment of the dialogue on April 1, 2009. The modernized dialogue format replaced the previous dialogs on strategic partnership (2005-2008) and on economic cooperation (2006-2008), which were established with the assistance of the administration of US President George W. Bush. / 31 / The format of the dialogue included meetings of high-level delegations in turn in Washington and Beijing.
The 2009 meeting was held in Washington. The dialogue has strategic and economic components. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and member of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China Dai Bingo co-chaired the strategic section of the dialogue, while US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Wang Qishan respectively.
The situation in Asia and, above all, in the Pacific basin is, of course, a foreign policy task of the same scale as the fight against world terrorism or the strengthening of NATO and its position in Europe.
Washington notes the need to maintain and develop traditional allied relations with Japan and Australia, and strengthen ties with South Korea, which is seen as a bulwark of security in Northeast Asia. At the same time, B. Obama and H. Clinton support the creation of a certain structure that ensures stability and counteracts international threats, instead of practiced bilateral agreements, rare summits or specific agreements, such as the six-party talks on the nuclear program of North Korea.
The place given to India is noteworthy. The growing partnership, the special importance of cooperation in various fields – from intelligence exchange to naval patrols and the peaceful uses of atomic energy must be transformed into a more significant role in regional and international institutions, including the UN.
At the same time, it remains unclear how American diplomacy plans to create a regional security structure, since participation of the PRC, given the real interests and contradictions, is clearly not provided for. However, any organization formed without the PRC will be perceived by the latter as having an appropriate focus, which is unlikely to improve the situation in the region.
Recognizing that relations with China are a central issue, the most important bilateral relations of the 21st century, the administration that came to power believes that, despite very different approaches and values, there is much that can be achieved together, while the Republicans, expecting a responsible partnership , note the scope of military construction, provocative actions, support for Burma, Sudan, Zimbabwe and other regimes. If China does not move towards political liberalization, relations with the United States will remain uncertain.
The correction was made by Barack Obama and his team in relation to China, in contrast to Condoleezza Rice, who viewed Russia and China as if on the same plane. A slightly different assessment of the situation in the region has now been adopted.
The Obama administration’s foreign policy platform is as follows — as in the Bush administration during the New York terrorist attacks, the focus is on Asia. This was reflected in Hillary Clinton’s first visit to China, where, in fact, an exceptionally soft platform for economic cooperation between the United States and China was proposed. In fact, it was proposed by Washington that China finance the United States out of the economic crisis in exchange for loyalty. For this, formal support for a united China strategy is promised as compensation.
Thus, the Chinese leadership was given a clear signal that America would not take active destabilizing actions against China, try to force it out to the periphery of the international system in exchange for very serious opportunities for cooperation in the economic and financial spheres. In response, it is required that China does not support the efforts and proposals of other world leaders regarding the abandonment of the dollar as a single world reserve currency – the main reserve currency (such expectations of the Americans did not materialize, because China made a statement that it was necessary to introduce a new supranational world reserve currency). In exchange, coordination in certain situations is proposed, and thus the rejection of a sharp confrontational policy regarding China.